Belarus Dictator Threatens Protesters
Sydney Morning Herald
Tuesday March 21, 2006
AS PROTESTS grew over the "overwhelming" election victory of Belarus's dictatorial incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, Russians watched with interest, wondering if the Orange Revolution in Ukraine would spill into Belarus, and eventually, to Moscow.
"Switch on Ekho, switch on Ekho," Muscovite friends urged each other in phone calls, referring to Ekho Moskvi radio, one of the few remaining outspoken broadcasting outlets.Vladimir Solovyov, host of the main Sunday evening political talk show on television, managed to get through the entire program without making a single reference to Belarus.But the radio station told listeners how the Belarusian opposition was spilling on to the streets of Minsk in reaction to the news that Mr Lukashenko, 51, had been re-elected with 82.6 per cent of the vote.No doubt, in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin had the radio pressed to his ear. It was a foregone conclusion that Mr Lukashenko, who earlier changed the Belarusian constitution to give himself the chance of a third term in power, would declare victory.But the throng of protesters, chanting the name of the opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, was surprisingly large, given that Mr Lukashenko had vowed to "wring the necks" of those who dared to squawk.In the run-up to the elections, the Belarus security service, which still calls itself the KGB and behaves like the old Soviet secret police, warned that "terrorists" were planning to detonate bombs in Minsk. Those adept at reading between the lines took that to mean that the KGB might terrorise the crowd.But still the protesters kept coming in their hundreds, carrying flowers and wearing the denim blue colour that identifies the Opposition. Mr Milinkevich called on the protesters to rally again today.Opposition leaders rejected the result as blatant fraud and said campaigning was marred by the arrests of dozens of opposition activists and mass intimidation. Time will tell, but it is unlikely that the Belarus protest will develop into anything like the Orange Revolution that swept Ukraine in the autumn of 2004. Mr Lukashenko will not hesitate to use force. Although the results are certainly exaggerated, most analysts agree that Mr Lukashenko would have won anyway because the Belarus economy is relatively healthy, thanks to cheap Russian oil. The Kremlin props up the Minsk regime because it thinks it gets more reliable access to Europe through Belarusian territory than through "disloyal" Ukraine and the Baltic states. Mr Putin has promised to step down when his term ends in 2008.So far, there is nothing to suggest he plans to break that promise. But the Kremlin leader might be tempted if he sees Mr Lukashenko get away with extending his dictatorship with minimal protest and not too much bloodshed.
© 2006 Sydney Morning Herald